Some Rads Are Working Harder – But Not All

If you feel like you’re working harder than your colleagues, you might not be wrong. New data on changes in imaging volume in the U.S. before and after the COVID-19 pandemic show that while volume grew faster than the supply of radiologists, those reading the most imaging exams shouldered most of the burden.

Medical imaging volume has become a closely watched barometer as radiologists struggle to manage a rising tide of imaging exams with a workforce that’s largely stagnant. 

  • Various technologies – especially AI – have been suggested as possible solutions by enabling radiologists to work more efficiently and churn out more cases per day.

The COVID-19 pandemic complicated efforts to track imaging volume over time, as exam volumes dropped dramatically in 2020 before eventually rebounding. 

  • So how much is imaging volume growing, and how hard are radiologists working to meet demand? 

The new JACR study compared imaging volumes, radiologist workforce growth, and corresponding workload for 1.6k radiologists from 167 U.S. practices before and after the pandemic (December 2017 to February 2024). The researchers found…

  • Imaging exam volume grew 31% over the entire seven-year period, at a 4.6% compound annual growth rate.
  • The number of working radiologists grew 24%, at a CAGR of 3.6%.
  • There was little change in the overall number of exams radiologists read per day over the study period (49.1 vs. 49.4 exams).
  • But the top quartile of radiologists by reading volume was reading 31% more exams/day by the end of the study (from 57 to 74 exams).
  • While bottom-quartile radiologists saw their productivity decline 32% (from 79 to 54 exams).

As a side note, researchers concluded that the COVID-19 pandemic ultimately had a “modest effect” on the number of working radiologists, although rates of part-time work were higher during the pandemic.

The Takeaway

The new findings on imaging volume and radiologist productivity have fascinating implications. In aggregate, it seems that radiologists are keeping pace with rising volumes. But a closer look shows that the burden is falling disproportionately on those radiologists who are most productive – a trend that contributes to burnout among the very professionals the discipline should be working hardest to keep.

VC Radiology Funding Drops

Venture capital investment in radiology peaked in 2021 at just over $2B and has been on a slow decline since then. That’s according to a study in JACR that documents the ebb and flow of VC investment, in particular its shift to companies developing AI algorithms. 

VC investment is the lifeblood of any industry built on innovation, and healthcare is no exception. 

  • Venture capital funding helps many innovators bring their ideas to fruition and helps fund them until revenue from product sales can start rolling in.

So it stands to reason that changes in VC funding levels can have ripple effects, with declines potentially affecting the rate of new technology development.

  • Indeed, some studies have found that every 1% increase in interest rates can cause a 3% decline in R&D spending and a 9% drop in patent filings.

The new research tracks VC funding specifically in radiology, with researchers from Emory and Harvard universities using PitchBook to track VC investments from 2000 to 2023. 

In particular, researchers found…

  • A total of $11.4B was invested in 646 radiology companies during the entire study period. 
  • The average investment was $6.3M with an average $51M post-investment valuation.
  • VC investment activity in radiology peaked in 2021 at $2.18B.
  • Medical devices attracted 28% of investment, followed by AI healthcare software (22%), non-AI healthcare software (18%), healthcare services (14%), and biotechnology and drug discovery (18%).

The new data track with research from other sources – like Signify Research – that have also documented a slowdown in radiology VC investment, particularly in AI. 

  • Most sources attribute the declines to the end of the “cheap money” era during the COVID-19 pandemic as governments began dialing back on stimulus payments and started raising interest rates to tamp down inflation. On the other hand, other research has found that the recent declines are occurring at a rate that’s not proportional to inflation or interest rates alone.

The Takeaway

The new JACR research comes as the investment and healthcare worlds are set to begin their annual courtship ritual next week at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco. Undoubtedly these new findings will be a point of discussion as radiology companies look to secure the capital that will fuel the next innovations in medical imaging. 

Radiologist Pay Jumps Nearly 8% in New Survey

Radiologist pay jumped nearly 8% in 2024 in the latest salary survey from Doximity. That’s the good news. The bad news is that radiology actually slipped a couple notches compared to other highly paid medical specialties.

In its latest survey, Doximity found that radiologists had an average annual salary of $572k in 2024. 

  • That’s up 7.5% compared to $532k in last year’s edition of the survey, giving radiologists the fourth-largest salary increase among medical specialties. 

Radiology’s salary growth accelerated in 2024 compared to 2023, when radiology pay grew 5.6%. 

  • And the growth rate is up sharply compared to 2022, when rad salaries grew only 1.6% in a year when many doctors saw salary declines.

Diagnostic radiology occupied the 11th spot on Doximity’s list of highest-compensated specialties in 2024, slipping a couple positions compared to the 9th spot in last year’s survey. 

  • Moving ahead of radiology were pediatric (general) surgery and interventional radiology, two new physician categories added with this year’s survey.

Overall, the Doximity report found that physician compensation growth slowed last year compared to 2023 (3.7% vs. 5.9%), and the report also noted several other broad healthcare trends…

  • The gender gap for doctor compensation worsened in 2024, with men now making 26% more than women compared to 23% more in 2023.
  • Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement cuts are weighing heavily on physicians, with nearly one-third of doctors saying they have already (17%) or plan to in the future (13%) reduce how many of these patients they see. 
  • And the vast majority agreed (33%) or strongly agreed (48%) that current reimbursement policy is contributing to the decline of private-practice medicine. 
  • Burnout levels appear to be easing from the peak a few years ago, with fewer doctors saying they feel overworked (62% vs. 67%) and fewer saying they are thinking about leaving clinical practice (39% vs. 50%).

The Takeaway

Industry observers can complain about how AI and private equity are ruining radiology (see our title quote above), but the fact is that radiologists are still enjoying salary levels and compensation growth rates near the top of medicine. It’s not a bad price to pay.

AI and Legal Liability in Radiology

What impact will artificial intelligence have on the legal liability of the radiologists who use it? A new study in NEJM AI suggests that medical malpractice juries may pass harsher judgment on radiologists when they make mistakes that disagree with AI findings.

AI is viewed as a technology that can save radiologists time while also helping them make more accurate diagnoses.

  • But there’s a dark side to AI as well – what happens when AI findings aren’t correct, or when radiologists disagree with AI only to discover it was right all along?

In the new study, a research team led by Michael Bernstein, PhD, of Brown University queried 1.3k U.S. adults on their attitudes toward radiologists’ legal liability in two clinical use cases for AI – identifying brain bleeds and detecting lung cancers.

  • Participants were asked if they felt radiologists met their duty of care to patients across different scenarios, such as whether the AI and the radiologist agreed or disagreed on the original diagnosis. 

Responses were compared to a “no AI” control scenario in which respondents assessed legal liability if radiologists hadn’t used AI at all, with researchers finding …

  • If radiologists disagreed with AI, more respondents found radiologists liable …
    • Brain bleeds: 73% found radiologist liable (vs. 50% with no AI)
    • Lung cancer: 79% found radiologist liable (vs. 64% with no AI)
  • If both radiologists and AI missed the diagnosis, there was no statistically significant difference …
    • Brain bleeds: (50% vs. 56% with no AI, p=0.33)
    • Lung cancer: (64% vs. 65% with no AI, p=0.77)
  • Respondents were less likely to side with plaintiffs when given information about standard AI error rates …
    • When AI agreed with the radiologist diagnosis:
      • Brain bleeds: (73% plaintiff agreement fell to 49%)
      • Lung cancer: (79% fell to 73%)
    • When AI disagreed with the radiologist diagnosis:
      • Brain bleeds: (50% plaintiff agreement fell to 34%)
      • Lung cancer: (64% fell to 56%)

The Takeaway

The new study offers a fascinating look at AI’s future in radiology from a medico-legal perspective. But there’s one question the researchers didn’t address: If AI-supported image interpretation eventually becomes the standard of care, will radiologists be found liable for not using it at all? Stay tuned. 

Radiology Workforce Shortage Tightens

Radiologist attrition rates have jumped 50% since 2020, and new workforce projections suggest the shortage will only worsen as imaging demand continues to outpace supply. The report – from staffing firm Medicus Healthcare Solutions – projects a worsening supply of radiologists by 2037.

It’s no news to anyone that healthcare is being squeezed by rising volumes from an aging population and chronic staff shortages caused by a training system that simply isn’t turning out enough qualified medical professionals.

  • In radiology, both radiologists and radiologic technologists are in short supply, and there have been only 29 diagnostic radiology PGY-1 training positions added since 2021. 

The Medicus report mostly assembles data acquired from other sources such as a recent study in JACR on radiologist supply, but taken together the numbers paint a sobering picture …

  • Imaging utilization is projected to grow 17-27% by 2055.
  • Radiologist attrition rates have grown 50% since 2020. 
  • Radiologist distribution per 100k population is uneven across the U.S., ranging from 25 radiologists in Minnesota to 9 radiologists in some other states.
  • Reimbursement is falling, with the Medicare conversion factor for 2025 dropping -2.83% for diagnostic radiology and -4.83% for interventional radiology.

What’s to be done? On the positive side, at least one new radiologist residency program started up this year, and legislation was recently introduced that would add 14k residency training slots over seven years. 

  • The report also recommends teleradiology as a possible solution, with 92% of radiologists in a recent survey saying their institution offered remote work options and 73% of radiologists participating in remote work. 

Medicus also advised health systems to take several compensation-focused steps to attract and retain radiologists …

  • Offer flexible, hybrid work schedules.
  • Provide competitive compensation packages and signing bonuses.
  • Improve vacation policies and time-off benefits.

The Takeaway

It’s hard to see short-term Band-Aids like better salary and benefits solving healthcare’s workforce shortage. And some are even questioning whether AI will really help make radiologists more efficient. In the end, systemic changes like a sharp expansion in residency training slots are what’s needed to effect a long-term solution to the staffing dilemma. 

Who’s Reading Office-Based Medical Images?

Non-radiologist providers are reading almost half of medical images acquired in the office practice setting. A new analysis in AJR raises questions about both the quality of these interpretations as well as whether they are contributing to imaging overutilization. 

Radiologists have jealously guarded their role as the primary interpreters of medical images, but keeping referring physicians away is like holding back the tide – especially when they control the patients.

  • Progress was made in the 1990s with the passage of Stark legislation prohibiting doctors from referring patients to sites where they have a financial interest, but Stark includes an exemption for imaging performed in the doctors’ own offices.

This in-office exemption is a loophole big enough to drive a truck through, and as in-office imaging has grown radiologists have raised questions about:

1. Whether non-radiologist providers have adequate training in image interpretation. 

2. If the economic incentive behind in-office imaging contributes to imaging overutilization. 

So to learn more about who’s reading in-office images, researchers from the ACR’s Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute analyzed 1.6M office-based imaging studies from 2022, discovering … 

  • 44% of office-based medical images are self-interpreted by the provider who ordered them.
  • Self-interpretation rates varied by modality: ultrasound (52%), X-ray (50%), nuclear medicine (40%), MRI (6.1%), and CT (5.3%). 
  • As well as by specialty: orthopedic/sports medicine (76%), cardiology (73%), non-physician providers (31%), primary care (20%), and other specialties (38%). 
  • Larger practices had lower self-interpretation rates, as did practices with a radiologist on-staff.

High image self-interpretation rates could be a patient care issue given that – other than cardiology – non-radiologist physicians don’t usually receive extensive training in image interpretation. 

  • Imaging overutilization could also be occurring as there are no reimbursement restrictions on in-office self-referring physicians, and studies have shown that the Stark laws failed to achieve reductions in self-referred imaging volumes.

The Takeaway

The new study sheds light on one of healthcare’s most persistent problems – in-office physician self-referral. The question is whether it’s a problem that will eventually take care of itself as healthcare consolidation leads to larger medical practices that are more likely to have radiologists on staff. 

More Radiologists Working for PE Practices

The share of U.S. radiologists working for practices owned by private equity has skyrocketed over the past decade, from 1% in 2013 to 12% in 2023. That’s according to a new study in AJR that documents the growing trend of PE ownership in medical imaging. 

As we reported recently, the growing number of private equity acquisitions in healthcare has raised questions about PE’s impact on patient care.

  • In radiology, some industry observers worry that PE acquisitions are changing the specialty in fundamental ways, turning radiologists from owner-stakeholders into corporate employees.

The new study analyzed PE acquisitions from 2013 to 2023, with a specific focus on geographic variations. 

  • Researchers found 151 PE acquisitions of radiology practices in the U.S. over the 11-year study period, through December 2023. 

Key findings were broken down as follows…

  • The share of radiologists working for PE practices boomed (12% from 1%). 
  • PE-acquired practices were associated with 16% of all U.S. radiology locations.
  • The states with the highest shares of PE-employed radiologists were Nevada (47%), Arizona (44%), Alaska (29%), Texas (27%), and Florida (24%).
  • Companies accounting for the largest number of PE-employed radiologists were Radiology Partners (70%), LucidHealth (8%), and US Radiology Specialists (7%).

The new findings echo previous research showing PE’s geographic penetration to be greatest in the West and Southeast. 

  • They also underline the extent to which Radiology Partners dominates PE acquisitions as it brings independent imaging practices under its umbrella. 

The Takeaway

The new study – along with other recent research – demonstrates the extent to which private equity acquisitions are changing the face of radiology. Researchers should take the next step and investigate PE’s impact on radiologists’ career satisfaction, and by extension, patient care. 

Forecasting Radiologist Supply

Two new studies published this week in JACR raise the provocative question: Will there be a radiologist shortage in the future given growing demand for medical imaging services?

It’s a question that’s become commonplace across healthcare as burnout and other issues prompt many physicians to leave the field. 

  • This has caused workforce shortages that raise questions about whether the U.S. – and other advanced economies – will be able to meet growing demand for healthcare services by an aging population.

The new studies were conducted by Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute researchers and each tackles one aspect of the supply/demand equation over the next 30 years. 

The first study analyzed past growth in the radiologist workforce to find …

  • There were 37.5k radiologists enrolled to provide care to Medicare patients in 2023. 
  • With no growth in the number of residency positions, there will be 47.1k radiologists in 2055, an increase of 26%.
  • If residency positions grow, there will be 52.6k radiologists, an increase of 40%.

The wildcard here is growth in residency positions, which are mostly controlled by Medicare through its graduate medical education program – and it literally takes an act of Congress to increase the number of trainee positions. 

  • Another factor is whether the higher physician attrition rate seen during the COVID-19 pandemic continues into the future. 

The second study addressed growth in imaging volume by analyzing trends in claims data for Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance, finding …

  • Imaging utilization will be 17-27% higher by modality by 2055 assuming no continuation of recent utilization trends.
  • Most utilization growth will be seen in nuclear medicine (27%), CT (25%), interventional radiology (23%), X-ray (18%), and MRI and ultrasound (17% each).
  • Adding recent utilization trends to the model finds utilization by 2055 either -5.6% lower or up by 45%.

Factors affecting future utilization include population growth (73-88% of increase) and population aging (12-27%). 

The Takeaway

So will there be a radiologist shortage in the future? The new studies indicate that there are too many variables to make an accurate prediction right now. But they do provide a foundation for future research – and debate. 

Top Radiology Trends for 2025

There’s no question that 2025 will be a watershed year for radiology. AI is on the cusp of going mainstream, the radiologist shortage won’t go away, and a number of new U.S. regulatory initiatives promise to reshape the field. 

As we did in 2024, The Imaging Wire asked key opinion leaders in medical imaging to provide their predictions on the technologies, clinical applications, and regulatory developments that will shape the specialty for the next 12 months.

AI Blurs Lines with Generative Models: “Providers will interchangeably use both general-purpose and custom-built GenAI models for regulated (e.g., draft reporting) and unregulated (e.g., EHR summaries) tasks. This will blur current lines for medical device determination, shift performance testing from regulators to providers, and encourage regulators to define comprehensive clearance pathways for GenAI.” – Keith Dreyer, DO, PhD, and Bernardo Bizzo, MD, PhD, Mass General Brigham/Harvard Medical School

AI Focus on Reporting and Synthetic Data: “There will be continued interest in using generative AI for reporting and synthetic data alongside ongoing discussions about bias, fairness, and regulations. We can expect an increasing focus on automated draft report generation. I look forward to seeing the community explore radiology use cases for test-time compute and agentic AI.” Woojin Kim, MD, CMIO, Rad AI

Breast Density Reporting Now in Effect: “The FDA ‘dense breast’ reporting standard is now in effect; needed next is standardization of insurance coverage. Individual state insurance laws are inconsistent, and while a federal Find It Early Act did not pass in 2024, supporters will likely reintroduce the legislation in 2025 to ensure health plans cover screening/diagnostic breast imaging with no out-of-pocket costs for women with dense breasts or at higher risk for breast cancer.” – JoAnn Pushkin, executive director, DenseBreast-info

Breast Screening Based on Risk: “The future direction of breast screening will likely include AI to analyze mammograms and other screening imaging studies as well as patient health data rather than family history and lifestyle choices, allowing more accurate risk assessment. Patients will receive tailored screening recommendations, and imaging may include breast MRI, DBT with AI assistance, and other technologies to identify small high-grade aggressive tumors. Genetic testing results will help identify patients at high elevated risk, providing patients with accurate, clear information about their individual risk and engaging them with shared decision-making regarding benefits and harms of screening opportunities.” – Stamatia Destounis, MD, managing partner, Elizabeth Wende Breast Care 

MRI Safety Comes of Age: “2025 will be the year of MRI safety’s ‘coming of age.’ New CPT codes to reimburse providers for the additional effort required to ensure safe scanning of patients with implants are the first time a formal structure has been established to ensure at least some MRI safety. This CPT change isn’t a stand-alone revolution, but a bellwether of the ‘young adulthood’ of MRI safety and changes yet to come.” Tobias Gilk, founder, Gilk Radiology Consultants

New Era for CT Colonography: “A new era for CT colonography started on January 1, 2025, when CMS started coverage for colorectal cancer screening. Adding CTC as an option for CRC screening will ultimately save lives since it identifies precursor polyps as well as cancer. Expanding screening CTC to some of our most vulnerable patients – including African Americans, who have higher rates of colorectal cancer – will help to improve health disparities. Radiologists need to be prepared to handle increased CTC volumes to assure efficient and effective patient care.” – Judy Yee, MD, Montefiore Medical Center/Albert Einstein College of Medicine

Patients Discover AI for Medical Images:Patients will use consumer-grade, multi-modal generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT to interpret their medical images and verify radiology reports for missed findings. Because they are not marketed for medical use, regulators will struggle to enforce oversight and could announce enforcement discretion for consumer use of these general-purpose AI models.” – Keith Dreyer, DO, PhD, and Bernardo Bizzo, MD, PhD, Mass General Brigham/Harvard Medical School

Radiologist Shortage Deepens:  “Maintaining proper staffing to support increasing volume will be the number one priority for private practices with hospital-based services in 2025. The shortage of radiologists is deepening, and with the demand for staffing growing so is the compensation package necessary to attract candidates. Private practices serving hospitals with weaker payor mix profiles will continue to seek financial support from their hospital partners to remain competitive in the market, not only to recruit new radiologists but also to retain current staff.” – Daniel Corbett, chief of business development, Radiology Business Solutions

Radiology in the Spotlight – for Better or Worse: “2025 will be the first year of Trump 2.0. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will be busy beavering through the federal government. All attention will be on healthcare costs again. Radiology will be in the spotlight with calls to curb utilization, adopt AI, abolish fee-for-service, and adopt alternative payment models.” –  Saurabh Jha, MBBS, AKA RogueRad, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania

Radiology’s Tough Economy Triggers Action: “I expect the global imaging market to look quite different at the end of 2025 versus the start, as tough economic conditions trigger action: M&A of small and mid-size hardware innovators; consolidation in imaging AI with category leaders emerging; the growing influence of non-imaging actors (pharma and life sciences, imaging service providers, big tech); price competition biting for the largest hardware vendors in emerging markets; and speculatively, at least one multi-billion top 20 vendor ‘mega-merger.’ Buckle up!” – Steve Holloway, CEO, Signify Research     

Regulation and Reimbursement: “Reimbursement decreases and recruitment challenges persist in 2025. While it remains critical that radiologists continue to advocate for the specialty and diversify their business plans, it’s becoming increasingly important for hospital-based groups to understand the fair market value of their services and potentially negotiate for additional support.” – Sandy Coffta, VP of client services, Healthcare Administrative Partners

Reimbursement Aids Nuclear Medicine Access: “In 2025, CMS reimbursement policy adjustments are expected to increase nuclear medicine usage and patient access. Ongoing clinical trials will likely drive approval of new radiopharmaceutical therapies and theranostics. With the radiopharmaceutical market projected to reach $12.4B, we expect improved access to nuclear medicine diagnostics and treatments in oncology, neurology, and cardiac imaging.” – Cathy Sue Cutler, PhD, SNMMI president and chair/Brookhaven National Laboratory

The Takeaway 

Making predictions is never easy, and that’s particularly true in a discipline as dynamic as radiology. Whatever happens in 2025, you’ll be sure to read all about it in The Imaging Wire

Radiologist Salaries Lag Inflation

A new study in JACR confirms what many radiologists have suspected: salary growth for private-practice radiologists has lagged inflation over the last 10 years. While there were a few bright spots, the study mostly shows that radiologists are working harder for less pay. 

Radiology has long been one of the better-compensated medical specialties, often landing in the top 10 of disciplines with the highest average annual compensation. 

  • But radiology has also been a target for reimbursement cuts by the U.S. government as it tries to shift more Medicare and Medicaid payments to primary care practitioners.

As a result, previous studies have found that payments per Medicare beneficiary in radiology have actually declined. 

  • And another 2.83% cut is on the docket for 2025 unless Congress steps in before the end of the current legislative session to prevent cuts in the 2025 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule.

The new study analyzes radiologist compensation based on MGMA salary survey data from 2014 to 2023. 

  • Researchers compared salaries for both diagnostic and interventional radiologists, and also between private-practice and academic radiologists. 

Based on the data, they found …

  • Diagnostic radiologists saw median total compensation grow over the survey period, but at a faster rate for academic radiologists (32% vs. 18%). 
  • Academic radiologists enjoyed faster annualized salary growth (3.2% vs. 1.9%) and had an edge after adjustment for inflation (+0.3% vs. -1%).
  • Work RVUs (a measure of productivity) also grew but at a slightly higher rate for academic radiologists (21% vs. 20%). 
  • Interventional radiologists saw higher salary growth for both non-academic and academic physicians (41% and 35%). 

The findings indicate that the traditional salary gap between private-practice and academic radiologists may be narrowing.

  • The growth in wRVUs in a time of stagnant or declining salaries after inflation adjustment may confirm the suspicions of both types of radiologists: that they are working harder for less pay. 

The Takeaway

The findings could be a gut punch for private-practice diagnostic radiologists, who are finding that their salary gains aren’t keeping pace with inflation (sound familiar?). They also suggest that academic radiology could offer a refuge from the market and government forces that are reshaping the private sector.

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