Echo AI COVID Predictions

A new JASE study showed that AI-based echocardiography measurements can be used to predict COVID patient mortality, but manual measurements performed by echo experts can’t. This could be seen as yet another “AI beats humans” study (or yet another COVID AI study), but it also gives important evidence of AI’s potential to reduce echo measurement variability.

Starting with transthoracic echocardiograms from 870 hospitalized COVID patients (13 hospitals, 9 countries, 27.4% who later died), the researchers utilized Ultromics’ EchoGo Core AI solution and a team of expert readers to measure left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and LV longitudinal strain (LVLS). They then analyzed the measurements and applied them to mortality prediction models, finding that the AI-based measurements:

  • Were “significant predictors” of patient mortality (LVEF: OR=0.974, p=0.003; LVLS: OR=1.060, p=0.004), while the manual measurements couldn’t be used to predict mortality
  • Had significantly less variability than the experts’ manual measurements
  • Were similarly “feasible” as manual measurements when applied to the various echo exams
  • Showed stronger correlations with other COVID biomarkers (e.g. diastolic blood pressure)
  • Combined with other biomarkers to produce even more accurate mortality predictions

The authors didn’t seem too surprised that AI measurements had less variability, or by their conclusion that reducing measurement variability “consequently increased the statistical power to predict mortality.”

They also found that sonographers’ original scanning inconsistency was responsible for nearly half of the experts’ measurement variability, suggesting that a combination of echo guidance AI software (e.g. Caption or UltraSight) with echo reporting AI tools (e.g. Us2.ai or Ultromics) could “further reduce variability.”

The Takeaway

Echo AI measurements aren’t about to become a go-to COVID mortality biomarker (clinical factors and comorbidities are much stronger predictors), but this study makes a strong case for echo AI’s measurement consistency advantage. It’s also a reminder that reducing variability improves overall accuracy, which would be valuable for sophisticated prediction models or everyday echocardiography operations.

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-- The Imaging Wire team