The decades-long decline in breast cancer mortality has been lauded as a major public health success story. But a new study in Journal of Breast Imaging suggests that the long decline in breast cancer death rates may be coming to an end, at least for some women.
Breast cancer mortality’s drop has been well-documented, with studies estimating the drop to range between 44% to 58% over the last three to four decades – saving at least 500k lives.
- Most experts believe the breast cancer mortality decline has been driven by a combination of organized mammography screening and better cancer treatments.
But amid the success are disturbing signs. Cancer incidence rates are increasing for women younger than 40 – the established starting age for screening.
- Mammography screening also has seen disparities in care that have resulted in higher incidence and death rates for women of color.
In the new study, researchers examined U.S. data for breast cancer mortality from 1990 to 2022, finding that over the study period breast cancer mortality …
- Fell by 44% for women of all ages and ethnicities over the full study period.
- Decreased by -1.7% to -3.3% annually from 1990 to 2010, but the decline slowed to -1.2% a year from 2010 to 2022.
- Declined -2.8% per year for women 20-39 years old from 1990-2010, but showed no decline from 2010-2022.
- Lowered by -1.3% per year for women older than 75 from 1993-2014, but showed no decline from 2013-2022.
- Declined for White and Black women of all ages, but not for Asian, Hispanic, and Native American women.
- Was 39% higher for Black women compared to White women from 2004-2022.
The authors acknowledge that much of their data pertain to women who are outside current screening guidelines.
- But they see this as an opportunity to revisit whether screening guidelines should be extended – especially to women 75 and older – to realize the benefits of early breast cancer detection.
The Takeaway
The new findings on breast cancer mortality indicate that even as mammography’s successes are celebrated, more work remains to be done to ensure that breast screening’s benefits are enjoyed by as many women as possible.
