Two new studies published this week in JACR raise the provocative question: Will there be a radiologist shortage in the future given growing demand for medical imaging services?
It’s a question that’s become commonplace across healthcare as burnout and other issues prompt many physicians to leave the field.
- This has caused workforce shortages that raise questions about whether the U.S. – and other advanced economies – will be able to meet growing demand for healthcare services by an aging population.
The new studies were conducted by Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute researchers and each tackles one aspect of the supply/demand equation over the next 30 years.
The first study analyzed past growth in the radiologist workforce to find …
- There were 37.5k radiologists enrolled to provide care to Medicare patients in 2023.
- With no growth in the number of residency positions, there will be 47.1k radiologists in 2055, an increase of 26%.
- If residency positions grow, there will be 52.6k radiologists, an increase of 40%.
The wildcard here is growth in residency positions, which are mostly controlled by Medicare through its graduate medical education program – and it literally takes an act of Congress to increase the number of trainee positions.
- Another factor is whether the higher physician attrition rate seen during the COVID-19 pandemic continues into the future.
The second study addressed growth in imaging volume by analyzing trends in claims data for Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance, finding …
- Imaging utilization will be 17-27% higher by modality by 2055 assuming no continuation of recent utilization trends.
- Most utilization growth will be seen in nuclear medicine (27%), CT (25%), interventional radiology (23%), X-ray (18%), and MRI and ultrasound (17% each).
- Adding recent utilization trends to the model finds utilization by 2055 either -5.6% lower or up by 45%.
Factors affecting future utilization include population growth (73-88% of increase) and population aging (12-27%).
The Takeaway
So will there be a radiologist shortage in the future? The new studies indicate that there are too many variables to make an accurate prediction right now. But they do provide a foundation for future research – and debate.
